+44 (0) 1908 774320
   
Roger Eddowes

Essendon Accounts & Tax

Home of the Business Godparent ...

CPI inflation rise to 3.8%: what it means for the UK

Roger Eddowes

CREATED BY ROGER EDDOWES

Published: 18/09/2025 @ 09:00AM

#CPIInflationRise #UKeconomy #ONSdata #CostOfLiving #BankOfEngland #SmallBusinessUK

Here are my thoughts on the CPI inflation rise to 3.8% and why it matters to both business and consumers. Prices are heating up before likely cooling off in a few months. Small firms should prep for volatility and policy shifts ...

CPI inflation rise, Prices climb to the skies, Wallets feel the squeeze

CPI inflation rise, Prices climb to the skies, Wallets feel the squeeze

The latest ONS data shows the inflation rate ticking back up to 3.8%, and the CPI inflation rise lands at the highest level since January 2024, with summer holiday air travel adding heat. While this isn't a return to last year's extremes, it still nudges consumer prices higher and keeps households cautious.

That means another round of price sensitivity for essential
spending and a tricky balancing act for policymakers!

The Bank of England expects the headline rate to edge towards roughly 4% before easing back toward the 2% target, keeping a watchful eye on services and travel. This outlook implies inflation is sticky rather than spiralling, yet persistent enough to shape interest rate thinking. For borrowers and savers, the path looks choppy, not chaotic.

The timing matters, as the ONS released new data today (17th September 2025) and the MPC bank rate decision is following tomorrow (18th September 2025). If the data confirm the CPI trend, the Committee may feel less urgency to cut quickly. Equally, a softening in consumer prices would let them signal a gentler landing.

Small businesses will want to plan for short bursts of price pressure even as the medium‑term path moderates. Supplier quotes may creep up, especially in services linked to travel and logistics, while wage expectations track the headline inflation rate. Passing through costs to customers will require careful timing and clear communication.

The Finance Bill and November's Autumn Budget 2025 loom large, and fiscal choices could either cushion or compound the CPI trajectory. Targeted reliefs, investment incentives, or adjusted business rates would filter into pricing decisions and margins. Owners should scenario‑plan for at least three budget outcomes and stress‑test cash flow under each.

Cash discipline is still king while consumer
prices move unevenly!

I'm advising many of my clients to lock in key inputs, renegotiate energy and shipping where possible, and refine inventory to match demand volatility. A little operational rigour now can offset a surprisingly sharp monthly CPI print later.

Households will feel the cost-of-living pinch most in discretionary categories, with travel and leisure likely to stay noisy. For the UK economy, the near‑term story is resilience with frictions, not recession with freefall. Patience and precision beat panic when navigating a CPI inflation rise.

Ultimately, I believe the next two data points will frame sentiment: the ONS data update and the MPC signal on rates. If forecasts hold, inflation should cool into 2026, helped by steadier energy bases and calmer services.

Until then, I feel that disciplined pricing, tight cost control, and clear customer messaging are the best responses to this CPI inflation rise.

Until next time ...


ROGER EDDOWES
Join our mailing list! Click here and be one of the first to know when we publish a new blog post!


Would you like to know more?

If anything I've written in my blog post resonates with you and you'd like to discover more of my thoughts about the CPI inflation rise, then do call me on 01908 774320 and let's see how I can help you.

Don't forget to stay updated with our daily social media posts on Facebook.

Share the blog love ...

Share this to FacebookBuffer
Share this to FacebookFacebook
Share this to TwitterTwitter
Share this to Linkedin (popup window)Linkedin
Share this to Pinterest (popup window)Pinterest
Share this to WhatsApp (popup window)WhatsApp

#CPIInflationRise #UKeconomy #ONSdata #CostOfLiving #BankOfEngland #SmallBusinessUK

About Roger Eddowes ...

Roger Eddowes 

Roger trained at Edward Thomas Peirson & Sons in Market Harborough before working at Hartwell & Co, followed by Chancery, as a partner. He started Essendon Accounts and Tax with Helen Beaumont in 2014 as a general practitioner with a hands-on approach.

Roger loves getting his hands dirty, working with emerging, small-to-medium and family businesses to ensure they receive the best possible accountancy advice. Roger utilises an extensive network of business contacts to leverage the best guidance and practical solutions.

More blog posts for you to enjoy ...

Click here to view this blog post


Is the State Pension triple lock sustainable for the long term?

The state pension triple lock has played an important role in protecting pensioners from falling behind as wages and prices rise. For many people, particularly those with little other retirement income, that protection matter...

Click here to view this blog post


Cybersecurity risks for businesses: Why basic protection matters more than ever

Cybersecurity risks for businesses continue to evolve, and recent incidents show that it is no longer enough to think of cybersecurity as something that concerns only large organisations or technology companies. The ways a bu...

Click here to view this blog post


UK business growth needs certainty, not just good intentions

There has been plenty of discussion about UK business growth recently, and the Chancellor has now given us some indication of the direction the Government intends to take in the October Budget ......

Click here to view this blog post


Why the cost of doing business is holding back growth

Growth is talked about constantly, but I think we sometimes overlook something rather obvious. Businesses need the confidence and financial headroom to invest before meaningful growth can happen. Right now, the cost of doing ...

Click here to view this blog post


The soft skills employers look for are becoming more important

Qualifications and technical experience will always matter when businesses recruit new people. However, recent research highlighted by the BBC suggests that the soft skills employers seek are becoming increasingly important t...

Click here to view this blog post


Five practical ways to boost UK economic growth

There is no shortage of political discussion about UK economic growth, but the more important question is what must change to achieve it. Governments can publish strategies and promise reform, but sustainable growth depends o...

Click here to view this blog post


Companies House accounts filing changes: Why 2028 is closer than you think

The Companies House accounts filing changes coming into force from April 2028 may sound comfortably distant, but I think businesses would be wise to start understanding them now. The reforms will change both how company accou...

Click here to view this blog post


Practical mental health tips for business leaders

Running a business can be rewarding, but it can also put considerable pressure on the person in charge. These mental health tips for business leaders can help owners and managers protect their well-being while continuing to m...

Other bloggers you may like ...

Click here to view this blog post


Why YourPING is more than just another app

Posted by Steffi Lewis on https://www.yourping.uk

It would be easy to describe YourPING as an app, but that doesn't really explain what we're trying to achieve. The technology is simply the mechanism ...

Click here to view this blog post


Accommodation for business travellers in Milton Keynes

Posted by Emily Freeman on https://blog.shortstay-mk.co.uk

Finding the right accommodation for business travellers in Milton Keynes isn't just a matter of comparing nightly rates. When you're visiting for a fe ...

Click here to view this blog post


Are you feeling unfulfilled at work? It may be time for a change

Posted by Dave Cordle on https://blog.davecordle.co.uk

Sometimes there isn't anything obviously wrong with your job. You turn up, do what is expected of you, get paid and repeat the process the following w ...

Click here to view this blog post


What is a daily reassurance check in and how does it work?

Posted by Steffi Lewis on https://www.yourping.uk

A daily reassurance check-in is a simple way to let someone know you are OK. At an agreed time each day, you receive a check-in and respond to confirm ...

© 2026 by Roger Eddowes

All rights reserved



All content on this blog, including but not limited to text, images, videos and audio, is protected by copyright. No part of this blog may be reproduced, copied, distributed, or otherwise used without the prior written consent of the author. Unauthorised use constitutes a breach of intellectual property rights.

Please note that many elements of this blog have been created using Artificial Intelligence (AI). As such, content may not always reflect verified facts or professional advice. The information provided is for general interest only and should not be relied upon as a sole source for making decisions, financial or otherwise. Readers are strongly advised to seek independent advice from qualified professionals appropriate to their country and situation.

The author of this blog, YourPCM Limited, and its directors, employees, and authorised agents accept no liability for any loss, harm, or consequence arising from the use or interpretation of content found on this site.

The sblogit.com platform is provided on an “as is” basis. By continuing to view or interact with this blog, you acknowledge and accept these terms. If you do not agree with any part of this notice, please cease using this site immediately.

YourPCM Limited is a company registered in the UK and operates exclusively under the jurisdiction of the laws of England and Wales.