+44 (0) 1908 774320
   
Roger Eddowes

Essendon Accounts & Tax

Home of the Business Godparent ...

CPI inflation rise to 3.8%: what it means for the UK

Roger Eddowes

CREATED BY ROGER EDDOWES

Published: 18/09/2025 @ 09:00AM

#CPIInflationRise #UKeconomy #ONSdata #CostOfLiving #BankOfEngland #SmallBusinessUK

Here are my thoughts on the CPI inflation rise to 3.8% and why it matters to both business and consumers. Prices are heating up before likely cooling off in a few months. Small firms should prep for volatility and policy shifts ...

CPI inflation rise, Prices climb to the skies, Wallets feel the squeeze

CPI inflation rise, Prices climb to the skies, Wallets feel the squeeze

The latest ONS data shows the inflation rate ticking back up to 3.8%, and the CPI inflation rise lands at the highest level since January 2024, with summer holiday air travel adding heat. While this isn't a return to last year's extremes, it still nudges consumer prices higher and keeps households cautious.

That means another round of price sensitivity for essential
spending and a tricky balancing act for policymakers!

The Bank of England expects the headline rate to edge towards roughly 4% before easing back toward the 2% target, keeping a watchful eye on services and travel. This outlook implies inflation is sticky rather than spiralling, yet persistent enough to shape interest rate thinking. For borrowers and savers, the path looks choppy, not chaotic.

The timing matters, as the ONS released new data today (17th September 2025) and the MPC bank rate decision is following tomorrow (18th September 2025). If the data confirm the CPI trend, the Committee may feel less urgency to cut quickly. Equally, a softening in consumer prices would let them signal a gentler landing.

Small businesses will want to plan for short bursts of price pressure even as the medium‑term path moderates. Supplier quotes may creep up, especially in services linked to travel and logistics, while wage expectations track the headline inflation rate. Passing through costs to customers will require careful timing and clear communication.

The Finance Bill and November's Autumn Budget 2025 loom large, and fiscal choices could either cushion or compound the CPI trajectory. Targeted reliefs, investment incentives, or adjusted business rates would filter into pricing decisions and margins. Owners should scenario‑plan for at least three budget outcomes and stress‑test cash flow under each.

Cash discipline is still king while consumer
prices move unevenly!

I'm advising many of my clients to lock in key inputs, renegotiate energy and shipping where possible, and refine inventory to match demand volatility. A little operational rigour now can offset a surprisingly sharp monthly CPI print later.

Households will feel the cost-of-living pinch most in discretionary categories, with travel and leisure likely to stay noisy. For the UK economy, the near‑term story is resilience with frictions, not recession with freefall. Patience and precision beat panic when navigating a CPI inflation rise.

Ultimately, I believe the next two data points will frame sentiment: the ONS data update and the MPC signal on rates. If forecasts hold, inflation should cool into 2026, helped by steadier energy bases and calmer services.

Until then, I feel that disciplined pricing, tight cost control, and clear customer messaging are the best responses to this CPI inflation rise.

Until next time ...


ROGER EDDOWES
Join our mailing list! Click here and be one of the first to know when we publish a new blog post!


Would you like to know more?

If anything I've written in my blog post resonates with you and you'd like to discover more of my thoughts about the CPI inflation rise, then do call me on 01908 774320 and let's see how I can help you.

Don't forget to stay updated with our daily social media posts on Facebook.

Share the blog love ...

Share this to FacebookBuffer
Share this to FacebookFacebook
Share this to TwitterTwitter
Share this to Linkedin (popup window)Linkedin
Share this to Pinterest (popup window)Pinterest
Share this to WhatsApp (popup window)WhatsApp

#CPIInflationRise #UKeconomy #ONSdata #CostOfLiving #BankOfEngland #SmallBusinessUK

About Roger Eddowes ...

Roger Eddowes 

Roger trained at Edward Thomas Peirson & Sons in Market Harborough before working at Hartwell & Co, followed by Chancery, as a partner. He started Essendon Accounts and Tax with Helen Beaumont in 2014 as a general practitioner with a hands-on approach.

Roger loves getting his hands dirty, working with emerging, small-to-medium and family businesses to ensure they receive the best possible accountancy advice. Roger utilises an extensive network of business contacts to leverage the best guidance and practical solutions.

More blog posts for you to enjoy ...

Click here to view this blog post


Planning ahead for the 2026 tax year-end: Practical moves for tax payers

Here's a useful run-through of what to review before the tax year-end on the 5th of April 2026. It covers business allowances, dividend changes, ISA tweaks and upcoming property surcharges. Think of it as a quick nudge to pla...

Click here to view this blog post


Why the HMRC self-assessment tax return deadline keeps catching people out

About a million people missed the HMRC self-assessment tax return deadline, and the knock-on costs can really add up. My blog post this week walks through why it happens, what HMRC fines can follow, and the smartest next step...

Click here to view this blog post


Are we heading towards a Digital Pound? The BoE is certainly thinking about it

Here's what a digital pound could look like and why it's being explored by the Bank of England. It wouldn't replace cash, and it certainly wouldn't be classed as crypto. The next couple of years are about design, testing and ...

Click here to view this blog post


HMRC's Time to Pay agreements: a simple way to help pay your tax bill

Need time to help pay your tax bill? HMRC's Time to Pay arrangements can spread a Self-Assessment balance into manageable monthly payments. File early, set up a plan if eligible, and keep an eye out for scams ......

Click here to view this blog post


Cybersecurity tips for protecting your business, family and personal data

Here are some cybersecurity tips you can actually use day to day, without getting overwhelmed. Learn how to spot common scams, verify requests safely, and lock down accounts with better habits. Think of it as a calm, practica...

Click here to view this blog post


Why small businesses are dropping the green agenda as survival pressures rise

Cashflow is getting tight for many small businesses, so dropping the green agenda is now a logical survival step. That's quite understandable. This blog post looks at why priorities are shifting and how firms can still move t...

Click here to view this blog post


Can HMRC take money from your business bank account for unpaid tax?

Wondering if HMRC can take money from your business bank account? They can, but only in limited cases, using the Direct Recovery of Debts process after repeated non-engagement, as long as key safeguards are in place. The opti...

Click here to view this blog post


Scrapping Directors' Reports: More companies to become exempt

Scrapping directors' reports is the government's latest push to simplify annual reporting. More firms could qualify for a strategic reporting exemption, and group accounts may cover more subsidiaries. This means less duplicat...

Other bloggers you may like ...

Click here to view this blog post


The art of compliance with an Online PA for FCA-regulated businesses

Posted by Sarah Hannaford on https://blog.sarahpasolutions.co.uk

The art of compliance is simpler when an Online PA runs the reminders, records, and routines. It's like having a calm, methodical second brain for FCA ...

Click here to view this blog post


Why HMRC's cryptoasset disclosure service has raised only £4m so far

Posted by Helen Beaumont on https://blog.essendontax.co.uk

HMRC's cryptoasset disclosure service has brought in only about £4m, despite tens of thousands of nudges. That gap hints at low awareness, wishful thi ...

Click here to view this blog post


Why shared staff logins put hospitality businesses at serious risk

Posted by Andrew Parker on https://blog.wolvertonsolutions.com

Shared staff logins feel like a shortcut, but they quietly create big security gaps. This blog post explains why they undermine accountability, invest ...

Click here to view this blog post


What Is The Most Important Part Of Your Business Network?

Posted by Pritesh Ganatra on https://blog.btsuk.net

The final words from a recent blog post led me to determine a business network's common point of failure. We're heading into the VoIP era and plunging ...

© 2026 by Roger Eddowes

All rights reserved



All content on this blog, including but not limited to text, images, videos and audio, is protected by copyright. No part of this blog may be reproduced, copied, distributed, or otherwise used without the prior written consent of the author. Unauthorised use constitutes a breach of intellectual property rights.

Please note that many elements of this blog have been created using Artificial Intelligence (AI). As such, content may not always reflect verified facts or professional advice. The information provided is for general interest only and should not be relied upon as a sole source for making decisions, financial or otherwise. Readers are strongly advised to seek independent advice from qualified professionals appropriate to their country and situation.

The author of this blog, YourPCM Limited, and its directors, employees, and authorised agents accept no liability for any loss, harm, or consequence arising from the use or interpretation of content found on this site.

The sblogit.com platform is provided on an “as is” basis. By continuing to view or interact with this blog, you acknowledge and accept these terms. If you do not agree with any part of this notice, please cease using this site immediately.

YourPCM Limited is a company registered in the UK and operates exclusively under the jurisdiction of the laws of England and Wales.