+44 (0) 1908 774320
   
Roger Eddowes

Essendon Accounts & Tax

Home of the Business Godparent ...

CPI inflation rise to 3.8%: what it means for the UK

Roger Eddowes

CREATED BY ROGER EDDOWES

Published: 18/09/2025 @ 09:00AM

#CPIInflationRise #UKeconomy #ONSdata #CostOfLiving #BankOfEngland #SmallBusinessUK

Here are my thoughts on the CPI inflation rise to 3.8% and why it matters to both business and consumers. Prices are heating up before likely cooling off in a few months. Small firms should prep for volatility and policy shifts ...

CPI inflation rise, Prices climb to the skies, Wallets feel the squeeze

CPI inflation rise, Prices climb to the skies, Wallets feel the squeeze

The latest ONS data shows the inflation rate ticking back up to 3.8%, and the CPI inflation rise lands at the highest level since January 2024, with summer holiday air travel adding heat. While this isn't a return to last year's extremes, it still nudges consumer prices higher and keeps households cautious.

That means another round of price sensitivity for essential
spending and a tricky balancing act for policymakers!

The Bank of England expects the headline rate to edge towards roughly 4% before easing back toward the 2% target, keeping a watchful eye on services and travel. This outlook implies inflation is sticky rather than spiralling, yet persistent enough to shape interest rate thinking. For borrowers and savers, the path looks choppy, not chaotic.

The timing matters, as the ONS released new data today (17th September 2025) and the MPC bank rate decision is following tomorrow (18th September 2025). If the data confirm the CPI trend, the Committee may feel less urgency to cut quickly. Equally, a softening in consumer prices would let them signal a gentler landing.

Small businesses will want to plan for short bursts of price pressure even as the medium‑term path moderates. Supplier quotes may creep up, especially in services linked to travel and logistics, while wage expectations track the headline inflation rate. Passing through costs to customers will require careful timing and clear communication.

The Finance Bill and November's Autumn Budget 2025 loom large, and fiscal choices could either cushion or compound the CPI trajectory. Targeted reliefs, investment incentives, or adjusted business rates would filter into pricing decisions and margins. Owners should scenario‑plan for at least three budget outcomes and stress‑test cash flow under each.

Cash discipline is still king while consumer
prices move unevenly!

I'm advising many of my clients to lock in key inputs, renegotiate energy and shipping where possible, and refine inventory to match demand volatility. A little operational rigour now can offset a surprisingly sharp monthly CPI print later.

Households will feel the cost-of-living pinch most in discretionary categories, with travel and leisure likely to stay noisy. For the UK economy, the near‑term story is resilience with frictions, not recession with freefall. Patience and precision beat panic when navigating a CPI inflation rise.

Ultimately, I believe the next two data points will frame sentiment: the ONS data update and the MPC signal on rates. If forecasts hold, inflation should cool into 2026, helped by steadier energy bases and calmer services.

Until then, I feel that disciplined pricing, tight cost control, and clear customer messaging are the best responses to this CPI inflation rise.

Until next time ...


ROGER EDDOWES
Join our mailing list! Click here and be one of the first to know when we publish a new blog post!


Would you like to know more?

If anything I've written in my blog post resonates with you and you'd like to discover more of my thoughts about the CPI inflation rise, then do call me on 01908 774320 and let's see how I can help you.

Don't forget to stay updated with our daily social media posts on Facebook.

Share the blog love ...

Share this to FacebookBuffer
Share this to FacebookFacebook
Share this to TwitterTwitter
Share this to Linkedin (popup window)Linkedin
Share this to Pinterest (popup window)Pinterest
Share this to WhatsApp (popup window)WhatsApp

#CPIInflationRise #UKeconomy #ONSdata #CostOfLiving #BankOfEngland #SmallBusinessUK

About Roger Eddowes ...

Roger Eddowes 

Roger trained at Edward Thomas Peirson & Sons in Market Harborough before working at Hartwell & Co, followed by Chancery, as a partner. He started Essendon Accounts and Tax with Helen Beaumont in 2014 as a general practitioner with a hands-on approach.

Roger loves getting his hands dirty, working with emerging, small-to-medium and family businesses to ensure they receive the best possible accountancy advice. Roger utilises an extensive network of business contacts to leverage the best guidance and practical solutions.

More blog posts for you to enjoy ...

Click here to view this blog post


Autumn Budget 2025: levelling the tax playing field for a fairer economy

The Autumn Budget 2025 could rebalance taxes without denting pay packets. If the Chancellor implements sensible reforms, they could raise revenue, boost growth and increase overall business confidence. It's a pragmatic path t...

Click here to view this blog post


How the HMRC R&D tax relief tool can streamline claims

Curious about the HMRC R&D tax relief tool? Here's how it clarifies eligibility, reduces risk, and supports better claims. It's a pragmatic boost for research and development ......

Click here to view this blog post


Unlocking sustainable economic growth through smarter, steadier government

Here's a clear path to sustainable economic growth: stable rules, simpler taxes, and targeted investment. It shows how government policy can unlock business growth. It's optimistic, practical, and focused on outcomes ......

Click here to view this blog post


Do you need to file a self-assessment tax return this year?

Wondering if you need to file a self-assessment tax return for 2024/25? Here's what's changed, who must file, and when to act. Stay ahead, avoid penalties, and keep things simple ......

Click here to view this blog post


Why the Autumn Budget 2025 will be the Chancellor's hardest test yet

The Autumn Budget 2025 will need to balance tight fiscal rules with an already weakened economy. Can we expect a clearer tax strategy? Business rates reform? Will there be cautious support for investment? I think it's going t...

Click here to view this blog post


Royal Mint Monopoly 50p Coin Marks 90 Years of Family Rivalry

Curious about the Royal Mint Monopoly 50p coin? Here's the story behind the design, the price, and a hidden golden twist. It's a neat nod to a Monopoly milestone ......

Click here to view this blog post


What HMRC using AI on social media really means for you

Here's the lowdown on HMRC using AI to review social media in criminal tax probes. It's about more intelligent fraud detection with human oversight, not bots running wild. Taxpayers should receive clearer guidance and fewer e...

Click here to view this blog post


HICBC: New process for paying the High Income Child Benefit Charge

The High Income Child Benefit Charge can now be paid via PAYE. No more self assessment just for HICBC, if eligible. Here's how the rules, thresholds and practical steps work ......

Other bloggers you may like ...

Click here to view this blog post


Exclusive discounts in Milton Keynes for ShortStay : MK guests

Posted by Emily Freeman on https://blog.shortstay-mk.co.uk

Here's the inside track on exclusive discounts in Milton Keynes for ShortStay : MK guests. Think dining, taxis, and self-care - easy to redeem, close ...

Click here to view this blog post


Why successful people say there is no failure, only feedback

Posted by Dave Cordle on https://blog.davecordle.co.uk

Here's the friendly nudge: successful people say there is no failure, only feedback. This helps them to think clearly and act smartly. Think the same ...

Click here to view this blog post


Winning More Jobs: lead management for trades with a Virtual Assistant

Posted by Sarah Hannaford on https://blog.sarahpasolutions.co.uk

You want more jobs without working longer hours - let's fix that. With lead management for trades powered by a Virtual Assistant and Tradify, every en ...

Click here to view this blog post


Rethinking Added Value: Beyond more clients or your day rate

Posted by Jacky Sherman on https://www.jackysherman.com

'Added value' - it's a phrase we hear all the time, isn't it? And almost always, when consultants talk about it, they're thinking about their pricing ...

Click here to discover sBlogIt! The done-for-you blogging service