The recent trade deals signed by the UK with the US, India, and the EU prompt an essential inquiry: are trade deals growth drivers? While the government portrays these agreements as monumental victories, I think the reality is far more complex ...
Are trade deals growth drivers? Do they hinder growth? That's the economy's dance
Trade deals are often heralded as transformative; a new dawn of economic prosperity. The UK government's recent flurry of agreements with the United States, India, and the European Union is no exception. However, as the dust settles, I find myself asking, "Are trade deals really growth drivers?" They seem to be a mixture of optimism intertwined with disappointment.
The impetus behind the UK's rapid trade negotiations is twofold!
Primarily, the government seeks to offset the ramifications of Donald Trump's erratic trade policies, which have ensnared the global economy in a labyrinth of tariffs. The aspirations for economic rejuvenation stem primarily from the desire to deliver tangible growth following Brexit. UK officials tout the potential for these deals to enhance growth projections, invigorate fiscal leeway, and bolster revenues. Yet, the reality appears less rosy when I think about it.
First and foremost, the bulk of the agreements are limited in their scope. Each one contains nuances and politically sensitive facets that could potentially undermine the gains they claim to deliver. Much of the content within these deals reflects intentions rather than solid commitments. This vagueness raises concerns about their effectiveness in truly revitalising the UK economy.
An example of this lies with the trade deal established with the United States. Initially perceived as a chance for the UK to boost its economic standing, the agreement has ultimately proved to be somewhat lacklustre. While it has successfully dismantled punitive tariffs - such as the 25% weight on steel, aluminium, and vehicles - these concessions come with caveats.
The favourable rates apply only to the first 100,000 cars shipped, limiting the possible gains. British goods still face a 10% tariff in the US, diminishing the likelihood of significant enhancements in UK economic growth. In fact, the impact is particularly evident for companies like Diageo, which faces an annual tariff bill of £112 million on its goods destined for the US market. Such burdens could prompt firms to reconsider their production strategies, possibly leading to a relocation out of the UK.
In contrast, the deal with India, while seemingly beneficial, also presents a mixed bag. British exports to India totalled over £17 billion last year; however, the Indian economy remains characterised by high protectionist measures, with tariffs soaring as high as 379%. Although the government projects that UK exports could increase by £15.7 billion a year by 2040, the trade deal's overall contribution to the UK's GDP is, according to HSBC, expected to be relatively modest at around 0.1%.
Established industries such as automotive, alcoholic beverages, and medical devices may well benefit, yet this gain is overshadowed by the sacrifices made, including reduced import barriers for US agricultural products.
Equally significant is the accord with the European Union, the UK's largest trading partner!
This agreement represents 41% of all of our exports. The ramifications of Brexit remain evident, with studies indicating that the departure from the EU has indeed harmed the country's economy. This is further compounded by the Centre for European Reform's ‘doppelganger' modelling, which estimates a staggering £13.4 billion per quarter decrease in UK goods exports post-Brexit.
While I will always argue the resilience of UK-EU trade, these comparisons substantiate the assertion that withdrawal from the single market has indeed had adverse implications.
The Prime Minister has posited that the recent EU agreement will yield £9 billion in benefits annually by 2040. However, notable alterations like improved access to food and agricultural exports and enhanced defence collaboration come with their own set of complexities. For instance, food exports account for just 0.4% of the UK's GDP, meaning that any gains will only partially counterbalance the effects of Brexit. While the benefits brought about by easier business processes, particularly for smaller enterprises, are acknowledged, it remains critical to consider the inherent costs - both financial and political - with improved access to the EU.
Deutsche Bank estimates the long-term economic benefits of these trade deals could reach approximately 0.5% of GDP by 2040!
While these figures certainly reflect growth, they fall short of the ambitious growth projections set forth by the current government. I believe that, while the agreements are noteworthy, the actual growth they will catalyse may prove to be disappointingly minimal.
Admittedly, the potential for the UK economy to experience growth through these trade agreements exists, but expectations must be tempered with realism. As businesses grapple with the nuances of international trade dynamics, the question remains: are trade deals growth drivers? It would appear that the growth effects of these recent agreements could be eclipsed by the tariffs and systemic challenges that persist post-Brexit.
I believe that the UK's recent trade deals reflect both ambition and caution!
As the economy continues to evolve, stakeholders will be watchful, seeking clear indicators of progress. The government may promise growth, but the pursuit of growth through trade deals may not yield the dividends that they originally anticipated.
I believe the real answer to whether trade deals are growth drivers will be revealed in the years to come, so we'll have to see what happens in the next couple of years.
Roger trained at Edward Thomas Peirson & Sons in Market Harborough before working at Hartwell & Co, followed by Chancery, as a partner. He started Essendon Accounts and Tax with Helen Beaumont in 2014 as a general practitioner with a hands-on approach.
Roger loves getting his hands dirty, working with emerging, small-to-medium and family businesses to ensure they receive the best possible accountancy advice. Roger utilises an extensive network of business contacts to leverage the best guidance and practical solutions.
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