Recently, the landscape of business confidence has exhibited noticeable shifts, particularly in the last quarter. According to the latest analysis from ICAEW, this decline marks the first drop in confidence levels in 12 months ...
I really hope the Autumn Budget can restore some of the lost business confidence!
The current confidence level stands at 14.4, a decrease from the previous quarter's reading of 16.7. This change, while alarming, maintains an overall sentiment that remains double the pre-pandemic average.
"The storm clouds of rising tax burdens loom large!"
The growing unease is largely attributed to concerns surrounding the tax burden, which was identified as a significant challenge by 29% of businesses surveyed. This is a stark indicator of how tax issues have come to dominate the conversation as companies prepare for the Labour government's first budget.
Despite assurances from the government to maintain certain tax rates, fears persist that other taxes may see increases, particularly Capital Gains Tax. The anxiety regarding potential tax hikes is particularly pronounced in the energy, water, and mining sectors, where 44% of businesses express notable concern.
The cautious outlook has also been exacerbated by a slowdown in export growth, which dipped to 2.7% in Q3, down from 3%. This reduction is understood to stem from waning demand in key international markets, further clouding the horizon for UK businesses!
Meanwhile, domestic sales growth has shown some resilience, reaching 3.8%, which is the strongest rate observed in a year. This divergence between domestic stability and international uncertainty highlights the complex factors influencing business confidence.
Looking further into the data, it becomes clear that optimism among respondents is dampened, with expectations for future domestic and export sales growth appearing more subdued than in previous quarters.
Certain sectors, such as services and construction, have displayed greater confidence, buoyed by favourable government policies regarding planning and interest rates. Yet, sectors like transport and storage are reeling from increased regulatory pressures and a gloomy sales forecast, which compound the overall decline in business confidence.
As companies navigate these challenges, I feel there needs to be urgent reform of our tax system as a means to stimulate growth and investment. There's a slight reality check presented in this data, indicating that while there is potential for economic expansion, the pace is likely to slow, influenced by a myriad of factors including inflation.
"Businesses are only planning modest increases in capital investment over the next 12 months!"
The overarching sentiment remains one of cautious optimism tempered by significant uncertainties. Overall, while business confidence does see some optimism, the underlying tax concerns and the looming budget decisions represent a pivotal moment for the UK's economic future.
I know that many businesses are eagerly awaiting clarity from the impending Autumn Budget, hoping it can restore some of the lost business confidence and set a course for sustainable growth.
Until next time ...
ROGER EDDOWES Business Godparent
Would you like to know more?
If anything I've written in this blog post resonates with you and you'd like to discover more of my thoughts on the current level of business confidence and how the Autumn Budget may affect it, it could be a great idea to call me on 01908 774320 and let's see how I can help.
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Roger trained at Edward Thomas Peirson & Sons in Market Harborough before working at Hartwell & Co, followed by Chancery, as a partner. He started Essendon Accounts and Tax with Helen Beaumont in 2014 as a general practitioner with a hands-on approach.
Roger loves getting his hands dirty, working with emerging, small-to-medium and family businesses to ensure they receive the best possible accountancy advice. Roger utilises an extensive network of business contacts to leverage the best guidance and practical solutions.
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